Information Research Weblog

The second Pew Internet and American Life report on the future of the Internet is out, and attracting interest. Be careful, however, in accepting the ideas. It is based, in part, on whether or not the respondents accepted the offered 'scenarios' of the future and those scenarios seem to have been rather carelessly constructed. Below are the scenarios that achieved more than 50% agreement.

A global, low-cost network thrives: By 2020, worldwide network interoperability will be perfected, allowing smooth data flow, authentication and billing; mobile wireless communications will be available to anyone anywhere on the globe at an extremely low cost——56%

Mmm. Does that mean that the commercial companies are going to turn into charities? Given the merger and acquisition tendency, I'd expect the 'low cost' to be something of a mirage! 2020 may be just a little too early for this, unless the net becomes a public utility paid for out of taxation, world-wide. That would be the sensible thing to do to ensure coverage and take-up, otherwise it is going to be slow and spasmodic.

Virtual reality is a drain for some: By the year 2020, virtual reality on the internet will come to allow more productivity from most people in technologically-savvy communities than working in the "real world". But the attractive nature of virtual reality worlds will also lead to serious addiction problems for many, as we lose people to alternate realities——56%

Sounds confused to me. Where is this 'virtual reality' that can allow actual physical products to be produced? Real services, external to the Web, to be delivered? The scenario confuses two applications of virtual reality: one in which work is done, which is likely to be only as addictive as work is in the 'real world'; and one in which play is done. It's in the latter that addiction is likely—in fact it's already here.

The internet opens worldwide access to success: In the current best-seller The World is Flat, Thomas Friedman writes that the latest world revolution is found in the fact that the power of the internet makes it possible for individuals to collaborate and compete globally. By 2020, this free flow of information will completely blur current national boundaries as they are replaced by city-states, corporation-based cultural groupings and/or other geographically diverse and reconfigured human organizations tied together by global networks——52%

I have difficulty with the concept of 'access to success'. Success is not something to be 'accessed' and used; it's something to be achieved. This is woolly thinking on the part of the scenario writers. What if an alternative scenario had been posed: The capacity of the Internet to allow communication and interaction is likely to increase feelings of national identity and strengthen the opposition to globalisation. National communities, bound together through the Internet, will establish services that bypass the global corporations and foster strong local suppliers.

Some Luddites/refuseniks will commit terror acts: By 2020, the people left behind (many by their own choice) by accelerating information and communications technologies will form a new cultural group of technology refuseniks who self-segregate from "modern" society. Some will live mostly "off the grid" simply to seek peace and a cure for information overload while others will commit acts of terror or violence in protest against technology——58%

Oh heaven, what a mish-mash of ideas! No wonder it has the biggest proportion of agreement - it's almost impossible to figure out what one is supposed to be disagreeing with. Where, exactly, are these people going to be 'left behind'? We still need bus drivers, shop assistants, welders, plumbers, etc., etc., etc. Just because some of them may not be totally wrapped up in the Net, they are going to be 'left behind'?! What nonsense. And these plumbers, bricklayers, electricians are going to be motivated to form 'a new cultural group' - I must have a word with my builder about that and see what he thinks. Millions of people (in fact the majority of people in the world) already live 'off the grid' and get on with their lives and work without worrying about being in this condition.

I may be giving the impression that I am not entirely sold on the ideas on this report, but do read it! Critically! The more critically, the better: because people are going to be quoting this stuff as what is actually going to happen.